Development of a System Dynamics-Based Simulation Model for Potable Water Management in Paimadó – Río Quito

Abstract

Equitable access to drinking water remains one of the most pressing challenges in rural communities in Colombia, where social and environmental gaps restrict the sustainability of this resource. This study aimed to develop a simulation model based on the dynamics of the system to evaluate the management of access to drinking water in the community of Paimadó, municipality of Río Quito. The methodology was based on the construction of a conceptual model that integrated four subsystems: water supply, demand, quality, and access costs, which were subsequently formalized through stock-and-flow diagrams. The simulation horizon covered the period between 2024 and 2040, in which three prospective scenarios (optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic) were evaluated considering variations in population growth, mining activity, and water treatment infrastructure. The results showed that in the baseline simulation, water demand increased steadily, reaching 1 031 690 m³/year in 2040, while supply decreased significantly due to the impact of mining, generating risks of scarcity and high household costs. In the optimistic scenario, with environmental control and strengthened aqueduct infrastructure, adequate coverage was observed along with a reduction of household water expenditure to nearly 0.18% of income. The moderate scenario reflected initial stability, although with risks of deficit toward the end of the horizon, whereas the pessimistic scenario evidenced a deficit of more than 50% of demand and household expenditure exceeding 33% of income. Finally, it is concluded that system dynamics is a key tool to accurately represent the interactions among supply, demand, quality, and costs, enabling the projection of scenarios and the design of management strategies that ensure water sustainability in rural communities.